Scotland's 3rd Place Permutations
With Scotland are guaranteed third place, what would be the scenarios and permutations in the event Scotland end up with 3 points and a reasonable goal difference (i.e. -1)?
The following won't mean anything if Scotland manage to nick a result against Brazil!
Group A
If both Czechia and South Africa fail to bear Mexico and South Korea respectively, the Group A 3rd place side will have at most 2pts. Scotland would be better than Group A's 3rd place.
Another acceptable scenario is if South Africa beat South Korea convincingly (and Czechia fail to beat Mexico), South Korea will have 3 pts. Scotland need to "better" (lose by less goals) South Korea's result.
Scotland beating Group A's 3rd place: LIKELY
Scotland should support: Mexico & South Korea
Group B
As Qatar and Bosnia face each other for 3rd place, the only acceptable result is a draw as the winner would join Canada and Switzerland on 4pts (or more)
Scotland beating Group B's 3rd place: UNLIKELY (Qatar lost 6-0 to Canada)
Scotland should support: DRAW between Qatar & Bosnia
Group D
Only Austalia v Paraguay game matters (as USA will win the group and Turkey will finish 4th). Paraguay has a worse goal difference.
Another Acceptable Scenario is if Paraguay beat Australia convincingly, they will have a poorer goal difference. Scotland need to lose by less goals than Australia in this scenario.
Scotland beating Group D's 3rd place: 50/50 (If Australia play with straight bat they should beat Paraguay but Paraguay and Australia playing out a draw benefits both sides)
Scotland should support: Australia
Group E
Note: Group E is similar to Group A!
If both Ecuador and Curacao fail to beat Germany and Ivory Coast respectively,
the Group E 3rd place side will have at most 2pts. Scotland would be better than Group E's 3rd place.
Another acceptable scenario is if Curacao beat Ivory Coast convincingly (and Ecuador fail to beat Germany), Ivory Coast will have 3 pts. Scotland need to "better" (lose by less goals) Ivory Coast's result.
Scotland beating Group E's 3rd place: LIKELY
Scotland should support: Germany & Ivory Coast
Group F
As Tunisia will finish 4th regardless and Netherlands have 4pts already, only the Japan vs Sweden game matters. As Sweden and Scotland have same goal difference but Sweden have more goals scored, only Japan beating Sweden convincingly will suffice. Specifically Scotland need to lose by less goals than Sweden.
Scotland beating Group E's 3rd place: 50/50
Scotland should support: Japan
Group G
Note: Group G is smiliar to Group H!
Egypt beating Iran is the only acceptable scenario as that would leave Iran on 2pts. A draw would leave Iran on 3pts with a GD of zero and no good to Scotland.
Match between Belgium and NZ is irrelevant, as regardless of result one of them will have 3pts (with a GD of zero) or more, which would be better than Scotland.
Scotland beating Group G's 3rd place: LIKELY
Scotland should support: Egypt
Group H
Spain beating Uruguay is the only acceptable scenario as that would leave Urugary on 2pts. A draw would leave Urugary on 3pts with a GD of zero and no good to Scotland.
Match between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia is irrelevant, as regardless of result one of them will have 3pts (with a GD of zero) or more, which would be better than Scotland.
Scotland beating Group H's 3rd place: 50/50
Scotland should support: Spain
Group I
With Senegal and Iraq on 0pts (France & Norway already qualified), a draw would be the most ideal result. Even an Iraqi win would be good as their GD of -6, shouldn't change matters unless they win by 5-0. But with Senegal having a GD of -3, a decent win two goal plus win should put them above Scotland pts/GD total.
Scotland beating Group I's 3rd place: 50/50
Scotland should support: Iraq
Group J
Note: Group J scenario similar to Group D!
Only Austria-Algeria game matters (with Argentina on 6pts and Jordan are out). With Algeria having worse GD (-2), a defeat for them will leave leave Scotland ahead on GD.
If Algeria beat Austria convincingly, specifically Austria lose by more goals than Scotland, then Scotland will finished ahead on GD. A draw would see both Austria and Algeria go through.
Scotland beating Group J's 3rd place: 50/50 (Concern about Austria & Algeria play for a draw)
Scotland should support: Austria
Group K
Only DR Congo vs Uzbekistan game matters. Any result other than DR Congo win will ensure Scotland above this group 3rd place team.
Scotland beating Group J's 3rd place: 50/50
Scotland should support: Uzbekistan
Group L
With England and Ghana on 4pts already and Panama already out, Croatia are the only team that can finish with 3pts. A convincing win for Ghana is the only ideal result that will help Scotland. A Croatia/Ghana draw will see both sides qualify for the round 32.
Scotland beating Group I's 3rd place: UNLIKELY (Concern about Croatia & Ghana play for a draw)
Scotland should support: Ghana
